This winter, the epidemiological situation will be difficult: there are cases of bronchiolitis, COVID, flu and the usual coughs and colds. A veritable virus soup.
Winter this year will be a cold and difficult one. There are cases of RSV (the virus that causes bronchiolitis), COVID (mostly due to Omicron BQ1.1, BQ.1 and BA.5), flu (mostly due to the A(H3N2) virus) and the usual coughs and colds: it is a real virus soup. The epidemiological situation is complicated: we are facing a season different from those of the last three years.
Have viruses changed?
Not especially. We have had preventive measures and restrictions due to COVID for three years. This special situation has distorted the “normal” viral landscape. Now it seems that we are returning to a certain "normality", although a little out of time. The flu, for example, has come a few weeks earlier than usual.
Are we facing the famous triple epidemic?
Probably not. The three infections mentioned (RSV, COVID and flu) seem to appear in succession, but they will not coincide in their respective epidemic peaks. It is highly unlikely we will be infected by two of these viruses at the same time.
What is the situation with RSV?
We have already passed the peak of bronchiolitis cases. These cases overloaded primary care and paediatric services. Fortunately, their numbers are now going down.
How is the flu epidemic going?
Flu cases have increased a lot and quickly. Forecasts place the peak of this seasonal flu epidemic around Christmas or the end of the year. A flu epidemic means lots of visits to health centres, time off work and hospital admissions. These admissions occur mainly in people over 60 years of age with underlying diseases (especially cardiac or respiratory ones) that can get worse and overload hospitals. The epidemic is likely to grow these next few weeks.
Together we have built a very good wall of immunity to reduce the severity of the disease.
Is the flu vaccine safe and effective?
The best prevention for flu, especially for its complications and severe cases, is to vaccinate groups at risk as well as health workers. The vaccine this year is well correlated with the viruses going round. It is expected to be effective in preventing complications, admissions and deaths from the flu. It is a safe vaccine and does not cause the flu.
Is the COVID pandemic over yet?
No, we have passed its most serious and critical phase, but COVID is still with us. There are still cases, with more reinfections, consultations and admissions (due to the currently dominant subvariants); but few are serious. COVID cases may increase further from early 2023.
Should I get the second booster dose of the COVID vaccine?
Overcoming the critical phase of the pandemic is a consequence of the protective effect of vaccination and previous infections. Together we have built a very good wall of immunity to reduce the severity of the disease. But there are certain differences among us.
The second booster dose with the updated bivalent vaccine is useful for the population at greatest risk (people over 60 years of age, with chronic diseases or pregnant women) and healthcare personnel, to temporarily increase neutralising antibodies and reinforce immunity. Receiving this second dose means there is less risk of contagion, hospital admission and getting severe forms of COVID. It is a safe and effective vaccine.
What is good advice for Christmas, taking into account the current situation?
We must make sure this virus soup does not complicate our lives at Christmas or in the following months. Stay at home if you have symptoms; consult a doctor if there are risk factors; get vaccinated (against both the flu and COVID - there is still time); use masks in enclosed spaces or crowds; ventilate as well as possible and help our healthcare system, which is already heavily overloaded. It is not a good idea to give viruses for Christmas.
Article written by:
Antoni Trilla
Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology Service - Hospital Clínic Barcelona
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences - University of Barcelona